Investigation of Demands and Proposals Forming Process in the Ukrainian Market of Power Resources

 

M.N.Kulik, Institute for Energy Saving Problems (NASU).

 

Ukraine inherited from the USSR an absolutely unprofitable for itself structure of power supply. During independence years this structure did not improve itself, but was essentially aggravated. Now Ukraine is probably the only country in the world which structure of fuel-power balances (FPB) is that kind of burden for the economy that it can lead to its destruction. Leading countries of the world provide profitable for themselves structures of power consumption and FPB by means of efficient power strategies creation and a legislation which provides their implementation. Still recently, particularly, a law about natural gas utilization forbidden at thermal power stations was in force in the USA and leading countries of Western Europe in the interests of a national security. Orientation towards utilization of own power resources is a fundamental principle of these strategies. The main primary resource in FPB of Ukraine is natural gas. Its share in FPB had been constantly increasing from 1975. This increase was also typical for the years of independence, gas share in FPB was 40% in 1991, and in 1999 it was about 45%. A share of natural gas utilization in Ukraine, which has its shortage, is much more bigger than this index in the USA (25.2%) and Great Britain (35%), which have rich power resources of gas. 

The process being mentioned was developing in spite of the fact that during the history (including years of independence) of Ukraine a dominating power resource by production volume was always coal with its reserves for hundreds years. Leading countries of the world do not build up their power strategy on import fuel disregarding their own power carriers. That kind of paradox exists in Ukraine only when natural gas consumption volumes (which was mainly imported) are in 1.7 times more than coal consumption volumes (mainly of own production). Therefore, a share of expensive import natural gas in FPB of Ukraine is about two times more than its share in the world FPB. First of all fuel resources of own production are used in a power consumption structure of all other countries. It concerns both the countries with good and average provision of own power resources. A comparative analysis of power consumption structure in industrially developed countries of the world provides that FPB structure in Ukraine is groundless, economically inexpedient and even threatening for its power and economic safety. In absolute volumes of natural gas import (about 60 mlrd m3 annually) Ukraine takes, unfortunately, one of the first places in the world. In these conditions a supplier country (Russia) uses its possibilities as a monopolist very successfully providing its earnings from our country per unit of trade gas which several times more than from consumer countries of Western Europe. As a result Ukraine has already overpaid Russia enormous additional means which amount to dozens mlrd US dollars. That kind of additional losses will increase more if not to take any measures. 

To change the situation in our power consumption structure cardinally it is necessary to decrease essentially both absolute indices and natural gas consumption share. At the same time it is necessary to increase essentially volumes and share of coal consumption as the main own power resource. Increase of coal consumption can be provided firstly with increase of its own mining. If it happens that after a certain level achievement a subsequent increase of its own mining is not economically based, further increase of coal consumption may be provided with its partial import, because the world coal market is competitive monopolization does not threaten it. FPB transformation of that kind will normalize a general economic situation in the country and also numerously decrease currency load on its economy because prices for import coal are essentially lower than the corresponding prices for natural gas. This factor is important because export potential in the country is now small and directions of its considerable increase are not appreciable. The report deals with the variants of demands for the main fuel-power resources in Ukraine up to 2015, scripts of development of the national fuel bases, systems of power and heat supply and also import-export fuel and power fluxes.